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Q3 2020 In Review
After experiencing unprecedented disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy remains on track to recovery even as the threat of the virus lingers.
Q1 2020 In Review
The U.S. economy started the year on a positive note before social distancing restrictions in response to COVID-19 led to the start of a sharp deceleration.
November 2019 In Review
November data reflected moderating growth as the U.S. economy continued to battle trade worries.
October 2019 In Review
October economic data pointed to a slowing—but still growing—U.S. economy.
August 2019 In Review
U.S. economic data was mixed in August, reflecting the complicated macroeconomic environment in the midst of high trade uncertainty.
July 2019 In Review
Leading indicators fell month over month for the first time in 2019. Still, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 1.6% year over year in June. Even though leading indicators have slowed recently, the LEI continues to expand year over year, signaling future economic growth.
June 2019 In Review
Leading indicators slowed, but remained largely resilient against trade headwinds. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 2.5% year over year in May, its slowest pace of year-over-year growth since January 2017. Still, the LEI is squarely in positive territory, signaling future growth.
May 2019 In Review
U.S. economic data improved in May on balance, even as investors battled a resurgence in U.S.-China trade tensions.
April 2019 In Review
Green shoots appeared in U.S. economic data as the economy entered the second quarter. Leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 3.1% year over year in March, breaking a five-month slide in annual growth.
March 2019 In Review
U.S. economic data were mixed in March, although leading indicators signaled low odds of a recession in the coming year [Figure 1]. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, an aggregate of ten leading indicators, rose 0.2% in February for its first gain in five months and 3% year over year.
February 2019 In Review
U.S. economic data were sound in February, even as confidence fell amid uncertainty from global trade and political headwinds. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, declined 0.1% in January, but grew 3.5% year over year. While the LEI declined month over month, positive year-over-year momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year...
January 2019 In Review
January’s reports painted a picture of a solid economy struggling with global uncertainty. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, declined 0.1% in December, but grew 4.3% year over year for 2018. While the LEI declined for the month, positive year-over-year momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year...
December 2018 In Review
Economic trends generally improved in December, even amid some of the most significant financial market volatility of the bull market. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), an aggregate of ten leading indicators, increased 0.2% in November and 5.2% year over year. While LEI growth slowed for a second month, positive momentum signaled low odds of recession in the coming year....
November 2018 In Review
Economic trends generally improved in November, even after strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the last two quarters. The average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year over year last month, the first time that measure of wage growth has eclipsed 3% since April 2009. Consumer Confidence in November fell month over month but it essentially remained at an 18-year high, signaling that strong consumer activity may continue to boost output...
October 2018 In Review
Overall, October’s economic reports reflected solid U.S. economic growth and manageable inflationary pressures. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3.5% annualized in the third quarter, boosting average growth over the last two quarters to 3.9%, the strongest pace since 2014. Consumer Confidence reached an 18-year high, signaling that strong consumer activity may continue to boost output. The unemployment rate’s drop to a 48-year low...
September 2018 In Review
Economic reports released in September indicated solid US economic growth without significant inflationary pressures, though wage gains bear monitoring; with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9%, the percentage of workers quitting their jobs jumped to a 17-year high, a positive sign for the economy. US average hourly earnings continue to rise as wages grew 2.9% year over year in August, the highest growth rate of this economic cycle...