Written by Jeff Thredgold, President, Thredgold Economic Associates
June 14, 2011
This week’s Tea Leaf is our semi-annual alphabetic view of the U.S. economy. Global ABCs will soon follow…
Anxiety—tens of millions of people are anxious about their jobs, their home values, the costs of educating their kids, the costs of health care, their retirements, and the perilous financial future of this nation. Any wonder consumer spending has slowed?
Budget Deficits—averaging $1,400,000,000,000 annually in fiscal years 2009, 2010, and 2011, with $1 trillion deficits projected annually for as far as the eye can see. We add to the deficit by $160,000,000 every 60 minutes
College—yes it is too expensive, but a sharp rise in average annual and lifetime earnings eases the pain. To quote Derek Bok, “If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.”
Dollar—the trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar has declined roughly 7% over the past year, making U.S. exports more competitive around the globe. Despite what the gold bugs constantly preach, the dollar will not stop being the world’s primary currency anytime soon
Energy—greater use of abundant natural gas, better access to oil and gas in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, and major progress in “clean burn” coal technology must be part of the equation in coming years…in addition to alternative sources
Federal Reserve—its key short-term interest rate has been at a historic low of 0.00%-0.25% for 30 months, with no change expected anytime soon. Thirty-six of 38 national economists surveyed last week by The Associated Press (including yours truly) DO NOT want to see a third round of additional stimulus, known as QE3
Global Economy—overall global growth is slowing as the three largest players, the U.S., China, and Japan have eased back. Inflation anxiety is more pronounced around the globe, led by higher oil and food prices
Housing—remember when home prices always went up…and used car prices always went down? Here’s hoping U.S. home prices stabilize early next year
Inflation—financial markets are somewhat split as to whether inflation or deflation will be the fly in the ointment in coming years. Those fearing inflation see the Fed making some difficult monetary tightening decisions over the next 24 months
Jobs—solid employment gains in the private sector are the most desirable solution to economic growth, income, and confidence challenges. Now, if the U.S. Congress would soon make some grown-up decisions about reducing future budget deficits…and then get out of the way
Knowledge—and the Ability to Think—the key to individual success in an increasingly sophisticated economy. Ongoing education and training are now lifelong realities for many to be successful. Average annual earnings of a college graduate versus a high school graduate today?...70%-80% higher
Limits—to government spending?...to deficits? An important concept now hitting home across Southern Europe…and sooner rather than later in the U.S. if we don’t get a grip
Manufacturing—don’t be surprised if rapidly rising global costs and more competitive U.S. costs lead to a surprising renaissance in U.S. manufacturing activity in coming years
National Debt—the gross national debt (quite descriptive actually) now exceeding $14,000,000,000,000, combined with budget deficits now exceeding $1 trillion annually, makes concrete moves toward fiscal sanity mandatory in the nation’s capital
Politics—childish and boorish behavior on both sides of the aisle in Washington DC is ridiculous…and all too typical. Is cooperation really that difficult?
Quarterly Economic Growth—most forecasting economists see a 2.0%-3.0% real (after inflation) annual growth pace during the next four quarters, barring any other major shocks to the system
Retirement—the term will take on new meaning in coming decades as more and more people “bridge the gap” (work two or three days a week) between working full-time and moving into full retirement. Millions of retirement-age Baby Boomers will prefer (or need) to keep one foot in the workplace for a long time to come
Social Security—steps taken sooner rather than later to slow down the future growth rate of spending are required. It would be great if politicians would stop calling it spending cuts…and scaring people!
Taxes—boosting capital gains, dividend, and income tax rates on the top 3% of income earners remains the President’s goal, IF he survives the 2012 election. Like it or not, these are primarily the people who create jobs and invest. The Administration’s focus on “income redistribution” rather than on providing “incentives for U.S. economic growth” remains troubling
Unemployment—likely to remain above 8.2% during the next 12-18 months, even as modest monthly job gains have returned. Why? Hundreds of thousands of people who previously left the labor force will continue to return as they (hopefully) hear about better employment prospects, with more than 270,000 returnees in May alone
Wall Street—simply stated…I remain a long-term bull on stocks
eXpectations—diminished for millions of people of all ages regarding careers, standards of living, and retirement. Fiscal sanity in Washington DC and around the globe would go a long way to reversing that view
Youth—my parents “came of age” with Pearl Harbor…my peers with Kennedy’s assassination and Vietnam. For millions of Generations X and Y, September 11 and the “Great Recession” will be forever etched into their consciousness
JaZZ (Utah)—maybe next season…if there is one!